So I've created a series of semi-quantitative graphs to help. ('Semi-quantitative means that there are numbers on the axes and specific doubling times for periods of exponential growth, but the finer details are rough approximations.)

**Here's the tl;dr for the first 6 months:**

**Points to note:**

- The Y-axis is log-scale, so small differences in height indicate big differences in numbers of infected people.
- Five different scenarios are considered, with plausible effects on doubling time of % infected.
- Restrictive measures are assumed to reduce peak % infected and eventual equilibrium.
- For all but the most extreme scenario, infection levels remain high (≥1%) even after 6 months.
- It will be very hard to justify lifting restrictions that have been effective.

**Here's the tl;dr if the costly restrictions are lifted after 7 months of misery:**

**Points to note:**

- In all cases, lifting restrictions makes % infected much worse (remember, log-scale...).
- The more effective the restrictions were in limiting total infections, the worse the second wave on infection is, and the longer it drags on.

**Below are the individual graphs:**

**If no action were taken (doubling time 3 days):**

Infections are assumed to peak at about 30% of the population at weeks 6-10, and then to decline to about 1% of the population since about half of the population will remain susceptible.

**If we take actions that have no or low personal cost (doubling time 6 days):**

- Reduce physical contact with other people
- Don’t touch your face
- Wash your hands
- Avoid large groups and crowded places
- Work from home if this is possible
- Reduce travel

The peak % infected is lower, maybe 20%, occurs at weeks 11-16, and declines to about 0.3% provided the restrictions remain in place.

**If we take actions that have moderate cost (doubling time 10 days):**

- Cancel pro-sports, concerts, conferences and other large gatherings
- Close bars and restaurants
- Cancel university classes

The peak % infected is lower, maybe 15%, occurs at weeks 18-25, and declines to about 0.15% provided the restrictions remain in place.

**If we take actions that have high cost (doubling time 20 days):**

- Close all schools and universities
- Close close non-essential shops and workplaces
- Close all public buildings
- Ban all non-essential travel

The peak % infected is lower, about 10%%, occurs at weeks 35-40, and falls to about 1% by week 52 provided the restrictions remain in place.

**If we take extreme actions (R0 <1 b="">**

- Lock down the entire population
- Enforce by police or the National Guard

The % infected slows its increase and begins to decline by week 15. It continues declining provided the restrictions remain in place.